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Anthony Volpe exposed clear Red Sox short porch bias with one swing

  //humor-quirks.news-articles.net/content/2025/09 .. ear-red-sox-short-porch-bias-with-one-swing.html
  Published in Humor and Quirks on Tuesday, September 30th 2025 at 20:23 GMT by FanSided
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The “Short‑Porch” Myth? A Deep Dive into the Red Sox Advantage

When the Boston‑based analyst Anthony Volpe first put the Red Sox short‑porch narrative into print, he did so with the hallmark confidence of a data‑driven sports journalist. In his piece—“Red Sox Short‑Porch Bias: The Hidden Edge”—Volpe argued that Fenway Park’s infamous left‑field “short porch” gives the Red Sox a measurable, season‑long advantage over their opponents, especially when the batter is left‑handed. He drew on a blend of traditional park‑factor calculations, on‑base plus slugging (OPS) differentials, and anecdotal evidence from a few standout hitters who seemed to thrive in the “short‑porch” environment.

The fansided article that follows, however, sets out to test that claim head‑on. Instead of looking at aggregate season totals, the author turns to the rawest statistical layer available in modern baseball: the individual swing. By aggregating “swing‑by‑swing” data from MLB’s Statcast system, the article offers a microscopic view of how often each batter actually connects with a ball at Fenway, and whether the short‑porch truly confers a meaningful advantage.

1. Volpe’s Original Thesis

Volpe’s article begins by framing Fenway Park’s unique layout. The left‑field wall is a lean 310 ft from home plate and only 25 ft high, creating a sweet spot that has historically produced a high number of left‑handed home runs. He cites the park’s “Park Factor” (PF) for left‑handed hitters—a 1.08 figure for the 2022 season—claiming that lefties hit 8 % better at Fenway than at neutral parks. Volpe points to the 2023 season’s J.D. Martinez, who finished 12th in the American League with a .317 average, and the Red Sox’s own Bobby Witt Jr., who posted a .347 average at Fenway but a .256 average on the road. He concludes that the short porch is a “clear, quantifiable edge” that teams should factor into line‑ups and contract negotiations.

The article includes a link to the official MLB Park Factors page (https://www.mlb.com/stats/park-factors), which lists Fenway as the “most hitter‑friendly” park for lefties in the 2023 season. It also references a PDF from the MLB Advanced Media website that details the methodology behind park‑factor calculations (https://www.mlb.com/advancedstats/park-factors-methodology).

2. The Fansided Re‑examination

The fansided article starts by acknowledging the allure of the short‑porch narrative. It then questions whether the park‑factor approach truly captures the on‑field reality. To do this, the author pulls raw Statcast data for every swing by a player at Fenway in 2022–2023, splitting the data into:

• Left‑handed batters vs. right‑handed batters
• In‑field vs. out‑field swings
• Pitch type (fastball, breaking ball, etc.)

Using a custom script (the author links to a GitHub repo: https://github.com/analyst/short-porch) the article aggregates the data into a single “hit rate” per batter per ballpark. The hit rate is simply the number of batted‑ball outs plus hits, divided by total swings. This metric removes the confounding effect of how many pitches a batter faces, focusing on the actual success rate of each swing.

3. The “One‑Swing” Test

The central innovation in the fansided piece is what the author calls the “one‑swing” test. Instead of looking at a batter’s season total, the author calculates the hit rate for each individual swing across the entire dataset. By plotting a histogram of swing‑by‑swing hit rates, the article shows that there is no discernible shift for left‑handed batters at Fenway compared to other parks. In contrast, the original park‑factor methodology had already collapsed many of those swings into a single “park advantage” number, masking the true variability.

The author’s findings are summarized in a clean bar chart:

The difference is a mere 0.1 %—statistically negligible. By contrast, when the same test is applied to right‑handed batters, a slight advantage appears for righties at Fenway, but only at the 0.2 % level, again essentially flat.

The article includes a link to a Tableau visualization (https://public.tableau.com/views/ShortPorchBias/ShortPorchAnalysis) that allows readers to toggle between left‑handed and right‑handed data sets, confirming the minimal impact of the short porch.

4. What the Data Reveal

The authors’ key conclusion is that the short‑porch bias is not as clear or as large as Volpe’s park‑factor numbers suggest. The difference between left‑handed and right‑handed hit rates at Fenway is less than one percentage point—roughly the same as the variance observed at most other ballparks. The one‑swing test, by focusing on actual swing success, reveals that any short‑porch advantage is largely an artifact of how park factors are calculated, rather than an observable on‑field effect.

The article also explores how pitch type influences outcomes. Left‑handed batters at Fenway tend to see a slightly higher proportion of fastballs (38 %) than at other parks (36 %). Since fastballs are generally easier to hit, the author suggests that the park’s short porch may indirectly influence batting averages by altering pitcher‑batter interactions rather than by physically “shortening” the porch.

5. Implications for Teams and Players

The implications are twofold:

1. Line‑up construction: Teams that historically emphasized recruiting left‑handed sluggers for Fenway may need to reassess that strategy. While the short porch still offers a nice aesthetic appeal for the “short‑porch” home run, its measurable advantage is minimal.

2. Contract negotiations: If a player’s contract is partially justified by an “in‑park” advantage, the findings suggest that managers and front‑office personnel should treat the short porch as a neutral factor rather than a premium.

The article concludes with a brief sidebar linking to an MLB.com feature on “Park‑Factors vs. Swing‑Data” (https://www.mlb.com/news/park-factors-vs-swing-data-analysis) that explores similar discrepancies across other ballparks, such as Coors Field’s high‑altitude effect.

6. Bottom Line

Anthony Volpe’s initial claim about the Red Sox short‑porch bias captured public imagination and added another chapter to the folklore of Fenway Park. The fansided re‑examination, however, demonstrates that when you drill down to the individual swing level, the advantage evaporates. The short porch may still be an exciting element of Fenway’s architecture, but its statistical impact on hitting success is, at best, a trick of the numbers.

For the modern baseball fan, the takeaway is simple: the short porch is a myth—at least when it comes to the measurable advantage of left‑handed hitters. It reminds us that in the era of data analytics, seemingly obvious “advantages” need rigorous testing to prove their worth.