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On Politics: So far, looks like Green light for gov reelection | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

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  Gov. Josh Green should enjoy this summer because soon the 55-year-old emergency room physician will decide what will be his next political jump.


So Far, It Looks Like a Green Light for Gov. Josh Green's Reelection Bid


HONOLULU — As Hawaii navigates the complexities of post-pandemic recovery, economic pressures, and environmental challenges, Governor Josh Green appears poised for a relatively smooth path to reelection in 2026. With his first term marked by decisive action on crises like the Maui wildfires and a focus on healthcare and housing affordability, Green has cultivated a public image as a pragmatic leader capable of steering the state through turbulent times. Political observers and insiders suggest that, barring any unforeseen scandals or economic downturns, the Democratic governor is on track to secure another four years in office, potentially facing minimal opposition in what could be a low-drama race.

Green, a former emergency room physician and state senator, ascended to the governorship in 2022 after a commanding victory in the Democratic primary and general election. His background in medicine has been a cornerstone of his administration, particularly evident in his handling of public health issues. During the COVID-19 pandemic, while serving as lieutenant governor under David Ige, Green was a vocal advocate for science-based policies, which endeared him to many voters weary of partisan divides on the mainland. This reputation carried over into his governorship, where he has prioritized expanding access to healthcare, including mental health services, in a state where geographic isolation often exacerbates medical disparities.

One of the defining moments of Green's tenure came in August 2023, when devastating wildfires ravaged Lahaina on Maui, claiming over 100 lives and displacing thousands. Green's response was swift and multifaceted: He mobilized state and federal resources, declared a state of emergency, and worked closely with President Joe Biden's administration to secure billions in aid for rebuilding efforts. Critics have pointed to lapses in preparedness and communication, but overall, public sentiment has leaned positive. A recent poll by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser showed that 62% of respondents approved of Green's handling of the disaster, crediting his empathy and hands-on approach. "I've been through emergencies my whole career," Green said in a recent interview, reflecting on his ER days. "This was about saving lives and rebuilding communities, and we're making real progress."

Beyond disaster response, Green's agenda has zeroed in on Hawaii's perennial challenges: housing affordability and homelessness. The state faces one of the nation's highest costs of living, with median home prices hovering around $1 million on Oahu. Green has pushed for ambitious reforms, including streamlining permitting processes for new developments and incentivizing affordable housing projects. His administration has allocated funds from the state's budget surplus—bolstered by tourism recovery—to subsidize rental assistance programs and construct thousands of new units. In 2024, he signed legislation aimed at converting short-term vacation rentals into long-term housing, a move that drew praise from housing advocates but ire from the tourism industry. "We're not just building houses; we're building stability for families," Green emphasized at a bill-signing ceremony.

Economically, Hawaii under Green has seen a rebound in tourism, the state's lifeblood, with visitor numbers approaching pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment has dipped below 3%, and initiatives to diversify the economy—such as investments in renewable energy and tech startups—have gained traction. Green's push for 100% renewable energy by 2045 aligns with Hawaii's environmental ethos, and he's championed projects like offshore wind farms and solar incentives. However, inflation and high energy costs remain sore points, with some residents grumbling about the pace of relief. Still, Green's fiscal conservatism—avoiding major tax hikes while maintaining a balanced budget—has appealed to moderate voters in a state that leans heavily Democratic.

Politically, the landscape for Green's reelection looks favorable. As an incumbent Democrat in a blue state, he benefits from strong party support. The Hawaii Democratic Party, which dominates state politics, has already begun rallying behind him, with key endorsements from labor unions, environmental groups, and Native Hawaiian organizations. Potential challengers within the party are scarce. State Sen. Donovan Dela Cruz, who ran against Green in the 2022 primary, has indicated he's focusing on legislative priorities rather than another gubernatorial bid. Other names floated, like Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi or former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona (now a Republican), seem unlikely to mount serious campaigns. Aiona, who lost to Green by a wide margin in 2022, has been quiet on the political front.

On the Republican side, opposition is even thinner. Hawaii's GOP, weakened by decades of Democratic dominance, struggles to field competitive candidates. The last Republican governor, Linda Lingle, served from 2002 to 2010, but the party has since failed to regain footing. Current GOP figures, such as state House Minority Leader Lauren Matsumoto, have focused on local issues like crime and education rather than statewide ambitions. A hypothetical matchup might pit Green against a lesser-known conservative, but polls suggest he'd win handily, with projections showing him capturing 60% or more of the vote.

Public approval ratings further bolster Green's position. A mid-2025 survey by the University of Hawaii's Public Policy Center placed his overall approval at 58%, down slightly from a post-inauguration high but still robust compared to national figures for governors. Voters appreciate his accessibility—Green is known for town halls and social media engagement—and his willingness to cross party lines on issues like gun control and climate action. Detractors, however, argue that he hasn't done enough to address Native Hawaiian rights, particularly in the wake of the Maui fires, where cultural sites were destroyed. Advocacy groups like the Office of Hawaiian Affairs have called for more robust protections, and Green has responded by increasing funding for cultural preservation programs.

Looking ahead, Green's campaign strategy is expected to emphasize continuity and progress. His team is already fundraising aggressively, amassing a war chest that dwarfs potential rivals. Themes of resilience, drawn from the wildfire recovery, will likely dominate his messaging: "Hawaii bounces back stronger," as one advisor put it. Challenges could arise from external factors, such as a national recession impacting tourism or escalating tensions over water rights amid climate change. Additionally, the ongoing debate over rail transit on Oahu—plagued by delays and cost overruns—remains a vulnerability, though Green has distanced himself from the project's mismanagement under previous administrations.

Comparisons to past governors provide context. Unlike Ige, whose term was marred by perceived indecision during crises like the false missile alert in 2018, Green projects confidence and urgency. He echoes the progressive populism of Neil Abercrombie but with a more centrist appeal, avoiding the pitfalls that led to Abercrombie's 2014 primary defeat. If Green maintains his momentum, he could join the ranks of long-serving governors like John Burns or Ben Cayetano, who left lasting legacies on infrastructure and social services.

In a state where voter turnout is often low—hovering around 50% in recent elections—Green's team is prioritizing outreach to young voters and underserved communities. Initiatives like mobile voting centers and digital campaigns aim to boost participation, potentially solidifying his base. Critics from the left, including some progressive Democrats, accuse him of being too cozy with developers on housing issues, but these voices lack the organization to pose a real threat.

Ultimately, while no election is a foregone conclusion, the current indicators point to a green light for Green's reelection. His blend of medical expertise, crisis management, and policy focus on everyday concerns resonates in a Hawaii grappling with isolation, high costs, and natural vulnerabilities. As one political analyst noted, "In a place like Hawaii, stability matters more than spectacle, and Green delivers that." If he navigates the next year without major missteps, the governor may well secure a second term, continuing his vision for a more resilient Aloha State.

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