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Humor and Quirks
Source : (remove) : The New York Times
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Humor and Quirks
Source : (remove) : The New York Times
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Themust-follow Fantasy Premier Leaguefixtureexpertwhobaredhissoul

Fantasy Premier League Fixture Analysis: Ben Crellin's Insights for the 2024/25 Season

In the world of Fantasy Premier League (FPL), few resources are as invaluable as Ben Crellin's fixture difficulty ratings (FDR). Crellin, a renowned FPL analyst, has once again provided a comprehensive breakdown of the upcoming Premier League season's fixtures, helping managers navigate the twists and turns of scheduling to optimize their teams. His color-coded calendars and predictive models highlight periods of ease and difficulty for each club, factoring in home/away advantages, opponent strength, and historical performance data. This analysis is particularly crucial for planning chip usage, transfers, and captaincy decisions, especially with the potential for blank and double gameweeks looming due to cup competitions and international breaks.

Crellin's latest fixture ticker begins with an overview of the opening gameweeks, where several teams stand out for their favorable starts. Manchester City, the defending champions, enjoy one of the kindest beginnings, facing a sequence of mid-table and newly promoted sides in their first five matches. This includes home games against teams like Ipswich Town and Brentford, which Crellin rates as low-difficulty encounters (typically green on his scale). This setup positions City's key assets, such as Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne, as prime captaincy options early on. Similarly, Arsenal benefits from a balanced start, with home fixtures against Wolves and Brighton interspersed with trickier away trips to Aston Villa and Tottenham. Crellin notes that Arsenal's defensive solidity could shine here, making players like William Saliba and Bukayo Saka reliable picks.

On the flip side, some teams face daunting early slates that could test FPL managers' patience. Liverpool, under new manager Arne Slot, kicks off with a challenging run including away games at Ipswich (deceptively tough for a promoted side) followed by home clashes with Brentford and Nottingham Forest, but then ramps up with Manchester United and Chelsea. Crellin assigns this period a moderate-to-high difficulty rating, warning that Mohamed Salah's output might be suppressed initially, advising managers to monitor form closely. Newly promoted Leicester City draws one of the toughest openings, with back-to-back games against top-six contenders like Tottenham and Fulham, potentially leading to defensive frailties and low clean sheet potential.

Moving deeper into the season, Crellin's analysis delves into the mid-season crunch, where fixture congestion often creates opportunities for strategic plays. Around gameweeks 10-15, teams like Chelsea and Tottenham are highlighted for their "swing" periods—alternating easy and hard matches that could reward bold transfer strategies. For instance, Chelsea's schedule includes a home-heavy stretch against Southampton, Everton, and Fulham, rated as green by Crellin, which might boost the appeal of midfielders like Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez. Tottenham, meanwhile, has a mixed bag with derbies against Arsenal and West Ham, but interspersed with winnable games against Bournemouth and Leicester. Crellin emphasizes the importance of these swings for wildcard activation, suggesting that managers save their first wildcard for around gameweek 8 to capitalize on emerging patterns.

One of the standout features of Crellin's work is his prediction of blank and double gameweeks, influenced by the FA Cup, Carabao Cup, and European commitments. He forecasts potential blanks in gameweeks 22 and 26, particularly affecting teams like Manchester United and Newcastle, who could see postponed matches due to cup runs. Conversely, double gameweeks might emerge in weeks 24 and 28, benefiting clubs with rescheduled fixtures. For example, if Manchester City advances far in the cups, they could face doubles against lower-tier opposition, amplifying the value of their premium assets. Crellin advises stacking teams with double potential during these periods, such as loading up on Brighton players if their schedule aligns favorably, given their strong home form against mid-table sides.

Team-specific breakdowns form the core of Crellin's insights. For Manchester United, he points to a rocky start with high-difficulty ratings against Liverpool and Southampton away, but a softer landing in December with games against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. This could be a prime window for investing in Bruno Fernandes, whose creativity thrives in open matches. Aston Villa, buoyed by Champions League participation, faces fixture pile-up risks, with Crellin rating their autumn schedule as amber-heavy due to trips to Arsenal and Manchester City. Managers are cautioned against over-relying on Ollie Watkins early on, instead eyeing differentials like Morgan Rogers.

Promoted teams receive special attention in Crellin's analysis. Ipswich Town, back in the top flight, has a mixed bag: an opening home game against Liverpool is a red-rated nightmare, but subsequent fixtures against Fulham and Southampton offer breathing room. Crellin suggests budget enablers from Ipswich, such as defender Leif Davis, for their set-piece threat in easier games. Southampton and Leicester similarly navigate tough initiations, with Crellin predicting defensive struggles but attacking upside in home games against weaker sides.

Strategically, Crellin offers broader FPL advice woven into his fixture predictions. He recommends building squads with rotation in mind, pairing high-FDR assets with those in green runs to maintain consistent points. For captaincy, he advocates for data-driven choices, like favoring home attackers in low-difficulty fixtures—Haaland at home to West Ham, for instance, over riskier away options. He also touches on the impact of international breaks, noting how fatigue could affect players like those from South America returning for gameweek 5, potentially disrupting form.

Looking toward the season's end, Crellin's ticker identifies "run-in" advantages. Teams like Brentford and Wolves could have dream finishes with a string of green fixtures in the final five gameweeks, making their budget forwards like Ivan Toney (if he stays) or Hwang Hee-chan attractive for the second wildcard period around gameweek 30. Conversely, title challengers like Arsenal and City might face each other in crunch time, leading to high-stakes, low-scoring affairs that dent FPL returns.

Overall, Crellin's fixture analysis serves as a roadmap for FPL success, blending statistical rigor with practical tips. By highlighting these patterns, he empowers managers to anticipate shifts, avoid pitfalls, and maximize points hauls. Whether you're a seasoned player or a newcomer, integrating his insights—available through his popular spreadsheets and social media updates—can be the difference between mid-table mediocrity and top-of-the-league glory. As the season unfolds, keeping an eye on fixture updates will be key, especially with the unpredictability of postponements and weather disruptions.

Read the Full The New York Times Article at:
[ https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6542338/2025/08/15/fantasy-premier-league-ben-crellin-fixtures/ ]