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Ron Dermer plans to retire from politics | The Jerusalem Post

Israel's Political Landscape Shifts Amid Ongoing Gaza Conflict and Diplomatic Tensions

In a rapidly evolving political and diplomatic arena, Israel finds itself at a critical juncture as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu navigates mounting pressures both domestically and internationally. Recent developments highlight a deepening divide within the Israeli government, exacerbated by the protracted war in Gaza, judicial reform debates, and strained relations with key allies like the United States. Netanyahu's coalition, a fragile alliance of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties, is facing internal fractures that could precipitate early elections or a significant cabinet reshuffle.

At the heart of the current turmoil is the ongoing military operation in Gaza, which has entered its second year with no clear end in sight. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have intensified operations in northern Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and leadership. According to military briefings, recent strikes have eliminated several high-ranking Hamas operatives, including those involved in the October 7 attacks that claimed over 1,200 Israeli lives and led to the abduction of more than 250 hostages. Netanyahu has repeatedly emphasized that the war will not conclude until Hamas is completely dismantled, a stance that has drawn criticism from opposition leaders who argue it prolongs unnecessary suffering and isolates Israel on the global stage.

Domestically, the coalition's stability is under threat from ultra-Orthodox parties demanding exemptions from military service for yeshiva students. This issue has long been a flashpoint, but the Gaza war has amplified calls for equal burden-sharing, with secular and centrist factions pushing for legislative changes. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, both from far-right parties, have threatened to bolt the government if concessions are made, potentially collapsing the 64-seat majority in the Knesset. Netanyahu, a master political survivor, has so far managed to placate these allies through backroom deals, but public opinion polls show eroding support, with many Israelis frustrated by the lack of progress on hostage negotiations.

On the diplomatic front, tensions with the Biden administration have escalated. U.S. officials have urged Israel to scale back operations in Gaza to minimize civilian casualties, which the United Nations estimates at over 40,000 Palestinians killed. Netanyahu's recent address to Congress, where he defended Israel's actions as a necessary defense against terrorism, received a mixed reception—standing ovations from Republicans but notable absences from Democrats. This partisan divide in Washington underscores Israel's growing reliance on bipartisan support, which is fraying amid accusations of war crimes from international bodies like the International Criminal Court (ICC). The ICC's pursuit of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has further complicated matters, prompting Israel to rally allies in Europe and elsewhere to counter these moves.

Adding to the complexity is the northern front with Hezbollah. Cross-border skirmishes have intensified, with Hezbollah launching rockets into northern Israel, displacing tens of thousands of residents. The IDF has conducted targeted assassinations in Lebanon, including a strike that killed a senior Hezbollah commander, raising fears of a full-scale war. Netanyahu has warned that any escalation would be met with overwhelming force, but analysts suggest Israel is stretched thin, balancing resources between Gaza and the Lebanese border. Diplomatic efforts, mediated by France and the U.S., aim to de-escalate, but Hezbollah's ties to Iran complicate negotiations, as Tehran continues to supply arms and rhetoric supporting the "axis of resistance."

Economically, the war has taken a toll. Israel's GDP growth has slowed, with tourism and tech sectors hit hard by global boycotts and investor hesitancy. The shekel has fluctuated amid uncertainty, and the government has approved emergency budgets to fund military operations, drawing from reserves and increasing taxes. Public protests, reminiscent of last year's judicial reform demonstrations, have resurfaced, with crowds in Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu's resignation and a deal to bring hostages home. Families of hostages have become a powerful voice, organizing vigils and lobbying international leaders.

Opposition figures like Benny Gantz, who briefly joined a war cabinet before resigning in protest, are positioning themselves as alternatives. Gantz's centrist party leads in polls, advocating for a more pragmatic approach to peace talks and coalition-building. Meanwhile, Arab-Israeli parties are gaining traction by highlighting discrimination and the need for inclusive policies, though their influence remains limited in the current right-leaning Knesset.

Looking ahead, the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza hinges on indirect talks in Doha and Cairo, where mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. are pushing Hamas and Israel toward compromise. Key sticking points include the release of Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of IDF forces from certain areas, and guarantees against future attacks. Netanyahu insists on "total victory," but international pressure, including from the European Union, which has threatened sanctions, may force concessions.

The broader implications for Middle East stability are profound. Iran's nuclear ambitions loom large, with Israel conducting covert operations to thwart Tehran's progress. The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations with several Arab states, remain a diplomatic win, but the Gaza war has strained these ties, with countries like the UAE and Bahrain calling for restraint. Saudi Arabia, a potential normalization partner, has conditioned progress on Palestinian statehood advancements, a red line for Netanyahu's coalition.

In summary, Israel's political and diplomatic challenges are intertwined with security imperatives. Netanyahu's leadership is tested as never before, balancing hawkish domestic demands with the need for international legitimacy. The coming months could see pivotal shifts—elections, breakthroughs in hostage talks, or escalations that redraw regional maps. As a research journalist, observing these dynamics reveals a nation resilient yet divided, striving for security in an increasingly hostile environment. The path forward demands not just military might but diplomatic acuity to forge lasting peace. (Word count: 842)

Read the Full The Jerusalem Post Blogs Article at:
[ https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-863947 ]