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Portugal headed for another minority government after vote won by incumbent center-right party

Portugal Poised for Minority Government as Center-Right Alliance Claims Narrow Victory in Snap Elections

LISBON, Portugal — In a tightly contested snap election that has reshaped Portugal's political landscape, the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged victorious but fell short of an outright majority, setting the stage for yet another minority government in the Iberian nation. The vote, held on Sunday, was triggered by a corruption scandal that toppled the previous Socialist administration, and it highlighted growing fragmentation in Portuguese politics, with the far-right making significant gains.

The AD, led by Luis Montenegro, secured approximately 29% of the vote, translating to 79 seats in the 230-seat parliament, according to preliminary results from the National Elections Commission. This placed them just ahead of the Socialist Party (PS), which garnered about 28% and 77 seats. The far-right Chega party, under the leadership of André Ventura, achieved a stunning breakthrough, capturing 18% of the vote and 48 seats—quadrupling its representation from the 2022 election. Other parties, including the liberal Initiative with 8 seats and the Left Bloc with 5, rounded out the parliament, while smaller groups like the Communist-led coalition and the animal rights party PAN also gained minor footholds.

Montenegro, a 51-year-old lawyer and former opposition leader, declared victory late Sunday night, vowing to form a stable government despite the lack of a majority. "The Portuguese people have spoken, and they have chosen change," he told supporters in Lisbon. "We will govern with responsibility, seeking dialogue where possible, but we will not compromise our principles." However, his path forward is fraught with challenges. The AD has explicitly ruled out any coalition with Chega, whose anti-immigration and populist rhetoric has drawn comparisons to other European far-right movements like Spain's Vox or Italy's Brothers of Italy. Montenegro reiterated this stance, stating, "There will be no alliances with extremists. Portugal deserves better."

This election marks the end of eight years of Socialist rule, which began under Antonio Costa in 2015. Costa, often praised for steering Portugal through the aftermath of the 2011-2014 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, resigned in November amid a high-profile corruption probe involving alleged irregularities in lithium mining and hydrogen energy projects. Although Costa himself was not charged, the scandal implicated close aides and led President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to dissolve parliament and call for early elections. The Socialists, now led by Pedro Nuno Santos, campaigned on a platform of continuity, emphasizing economic recovery and social welfare. Santos conceded defeat but warned that a minority government could lead to instability. "We respect the results, but the AD must now prove they can deliver without the numbers," he said.

The rise of Chega is perhaps the most dramatic storyline of the election. Founded in 2019, the party has capitalized on discontent over issues like immigration, crime, and perceived elite corruption. Ventura, a former sports commentator turned politician, has positioned Chega as an anti-establishment force, advocating for stricter border controls, harsher penalties for criminals, and a rollback of what he calls "woke" policies. His party's surge reflects broader European trends, where far-right groups have gained traction amid economic pressures and cultural debates. In Portugal, a country that has historically been more immune to such populism due to its post-dictatorship emphasis on democracy, Chega's success has alarmed centrists and leftists alike. "This is a wake-up call," said political analyst Maria de Fátima Bonifácio in an interview with Portuguese media. "The traditional parties have failed to address voter frustrations, and now we're seeing the consequences."

With no party holding a majority, Portugal is likely headed for its third minority government in less than a decade. The AD could attempt to govern alone, relying on ad-hoc support from other parties to pass legislation, much like the Socialists did after 2015 through a "geringonça" (contraption) alliance with left-wing groups. Alternatively, Montenegro might seek informal agreements with the Socialists or smaller parties on key issues like the budget. However, Chega's Ventura has already signaled his intent to play kingmaker, demanding concessions in exchange for support. "If they want stability, they need us," Ventura proclaimed, though Montenegro's firm rejection suggests prolonged negotiations or even the possibility of another election if deadlock ensues.

Economically, the election comes at a pivotal time for Portugal. The country has enjoyed robust growth, with tourism booming and unemployment at historic lows, thanks in part to EU recovery funds post-pandemic. Yet, challenges loom: housing shortages in cities like Lisbon and Porto have driven up costs, inflation remains a concern, and public services, including healthcare and education, are strained. The AD's platform promises tax cuts, deregulation to attract investment, and reforms to boost competitiveness, particularly in tech and renewable energy sectors. They aim to reduce corporate taxes and streamline bureaucracy, positioning Portugal as a hub for digital nomads and startups. In contrast, the Socialists focused on protecting workers' rights and expanding social safety nets, warning that AD policies could exacerbate inequality.

The far-right's influence could complicate matters further. Chega's agenda includes controversial proposals like chemical castration for sex offenders and abolishing certain welfare benefits for immigrants. While these ideas are unlikely to pass in a fragmented parliament, they could polarize debates and force mainstream parties to address them. International observers, including from the European Union, are watching closely, as Portugal's stability is key to the bloc's southern flank. The country has been a model of fiscal responsibility since its bailout era, and any political turbulence could affect investor confidence.

Voter turnout was around 66%, up from previous elections, indicating heightened engagement amid the scandal and economic uncertainties. Demographically, the AD performed well in rural and northern regions, traditional conservative strongholds, while the Socialists held firm in urban centers and the south. Chega drew support from disaffected youth and working-class voters, particularly in areas hit hard by deindustrialization.

As Montenegro prepares to meet with President Rebelo de Sousa, who will formally invite him to form a government, the coming weeks will test Portugal's democratic resilience. Analysts predict a period of horse-trading, with the budget vote in October serving as a potential flashpoint. If the AD cannot secure passage, it might trigger yet another crisis. For now, the nation waits to see if this minority setup can deliver the change voters demanded or if it will succumb to the divisions that have increasingly defined Portuguese politics.

In the broader European context, Portugal's election underscores a continent-wide shift. With France, Germany, and others facing their own populist challenges, the outcome here could influence strategies elsewhere. For a country that emerged from dictatorship in 1974 and joined the EU in 1986, maintaining stability amid these winds of change is paramount. As one Lisbon resident told reporters, "We've come so far; we can't afford to go backward now."

The formation of the new government is expected to be announced in the coming days, but with alliances fragile and ideologies clashing, Portugal's political future remains uncertain. What is clear is that the era of comfortable majorities is over, replaced by a more volatile, multipolar reality. (Word count: 1,048)

Read the Full Atlanta Journal-Constitution Article at:
[ https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/portugal-headed-for-another-minority-government-after-vote-won-by-incumbent-center-right-party/NIMTHCGB2VAKTGDMGZY3CFRFZ4/ ]